Rasmussen Poll Shows Kay With Slight Lead

New polling numbers indicate that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison may indeed be coming to life on the campaign trail. After months of poor polling vs. Gov. Rick Perry, Hutchison can now point to a good showing in the latest Rasmussen Poll.

The showing erases a 10-point advantage Perry had just two months ago, and puts the race in a statistical dead heat.

The poll currently shows Hutchison with a 40 percent to 38 percent lead over Perry. The Governor had led in the same poll by 46-36 in July. In August, Perry’s lead had been cut to 42-38.

One poll, of course, does not make a trend and election watchers will closely eye future polls for confirming information. And while the race will likely swing back and forth, Perry no longer seems to be completely in command, as he did two months ago.

Hutchison’s improved showing comes as she finally hits the campaign trail after months of lots of talking, but not much doing.  As this writer has noted, the senator is a formidable campaigner. But so is Perry, and it’s likely he will not let her seize the momentum.

The third Republican on the ballot, Debra Medina, is polling well behind the lead challengers, with three percent. However, her entry into the race may cut somewhat into Perry’s numbers. Hutchison is seen by many as a moderate, Perry a conservative. Most voters don’t know much about Medina, although she has strong ties to Ron Paul (who has nonetheless not endorsed any candidate yet) and to the libertarian wing of the GOP. It’s not likely that many of her voters would even consider Hutchison, so if she hurts anyone, it’s Perry.

Undecideds

Despite their long periods of service – Hutchison has been in the Senate since 1993 and Perry’s been a Lt. Gov. and Gov. since 1998 – both of the two leading candidates are leaving a lot of voters on the table right now. Rasmussen shows 19 percent of GOP voters unsure of who to vote for. 

Perry currently has a 72 percent favorable impression among primary voters and Hutchison’s number is 71. Both are impressive numbers, but the governor’s mansion isn’t big enough for the two of them. Both have “strongly favorable” numbers in the low 20s and their “unfavorable” numbers are tied, at 26 percent.

Another key factor not measured in the poll is the likelihood of non-traditional GOP voters to jump into the GOP primary. Conventional wisdom is that this would help Hutchison, who is the top vote getter in Texas general elections and enjoys support from many independents and crossover Democrats.