When the US-Mexico Border Resembles a 24 Episode

A government under siege, plagued by corruption.

Criminal gangs using military style weapons.

Third countries supplying bad actors for their own aims.

Kidnapping running rampant.

Innocent civilians caught in the cross fire.

It all sounds like an episode of 24 , the Fox channel thriller starring Kiefer Sutherland, where the good guys are buffeted by international conspiracies, incompetent bureaucrats, rogue agents, and a ticking clock.

But, unfortunately it’s real and it’s happening in our backyard.

As previously reported by the Texas Republic News , the security situation on the US-Mexico border is seriously deteriorating. Events yesterday brought more news, good and bad.

First, the good news: previously somnolent authorities are awakening to these novel dangers. Texas State Senator Dan Patrick made an appearance on the Glenn Beck show on FoxNews yesterday to discuss the situation on the border (For the full video and transcript, click here .)

Money quotes:

BECK: “The problem is this is a dangerous situation. People feel disenfranchised. Mexico is on the verge of collapse. You've got massive murder problems and drug problems. What are you are guys worried about? And how are you preparing in Texas for a possible push into America from people just fleeing a drug state?”

PATRICK: … “You will love this term, Glenn. The United States has a plan called "mass migration" as opposed to the collapse of Mexico. And we need a plan here in Texas because there are two scenarios, Glenn. One is a slow collapse, an economic collapse of Mexico in which hundreds of thousands would come here over a period of time.

The second is what I call a Colombian collapse of Mexico, an assassination of the president, the drug cartels taking over the country, civil war breaking out on the streets, people fleeing for their lives, not for a job.”

Thankfully, it sounds like the State of Texas is at least aware of the problem and trying to do something about it while the Feds hit the snooze button again.

The bad news is that we now know more about the depth of the problem and it is harrowing indeed. The intrepid private intelligence service, Austin-based Stratfor.com, released a report on Feb. 19 titled Mexico: The Third War . This document details the increasing frequency and severity of the violence.

“Make no mistake, considering the military weapons now being used in Mexico and the number of deaths involved, the country is in the middle of a war.”

The report chronicles the near-daily use of assault weapons, fragmentation grenades, rocket propelled grenades (RPGs), and mortars. While Stratfor.com does not explicitly say so, it seems reasonable to assess that these military grade weapons suggest a state actor(s) may be involved in the fomenting instability on our border. Why, I can’t imagine who in the world would want to do that, can you?

The Stratfor.com report goes on to describe three concurrent wars going on in Mexico:

1. Cartel on cartel
2. Cartel on government
3. Criminals on civilians
   

On that last point, the civilian population has become a bigger target for the criminal element.

“These various types of criminal gangs target civilians in a number of ways, including, robbery, burglary, carjacking, extortion, fraud and counterfeiting. But of all the crimes committed by these gangs, perhaps the one that creates the most widespread psychological and emotional damage is kidnapping, which also is one of the most underreported crimes. …

One of the difficult things about studying kidnapping in Mexico is that the crime not only is widespread, affecting almost every corner of the country…”

The crumbling security situation has created a window of opportunity for the unscrupulous against the innocent. Meanwhile, the Mexican government is in a bind because of brain drain and corruption.

“There is very little chance the Mexican government will be able to establish integrity in its law enforcement agencies, or bring law and order to large portions of the country, any time soon. Official corruption and ineptitude are endemic in Mexico, which means that Mexican citizens and visiting foreigners will have to face the threat of kidnapping for the foreseeable future.”

Therefore, we should expect the violence to continue to move into the US. As Glenn Beck noted in the Dan Patrick interview linked above, Phoenix, AZ is second behind only Mexico City in number of kidnappings worldwide. How long will non-border areas Texas be spared Mexican drug related violence?

Yet, there’s a fourth war that may not be manifest now, but must be planned for and proactively addressed: the terrorist threat. As we learned with September 11, weak and failing states are a grave threat to the US. Terrorist groups can take advantage of weak governments to plan, train, and support attacks against US interests and the US homeland. September 11 was organized in far-off Afghanistan. How much worse would a terror attack be if it planned, supported, and carried out so close to home?

Such a scenario would cause Jack Bauer to say “I’ve been to some horrible places. I’ve seen some pretty terrible things. I don’t think I’ve ever been this scared in my whole life.”